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Sahel Predictive Analytics Report

Updated: Oct 7, 2023

Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel



Partner: Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSRDS); United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)


We contributed to the UNHCR’s Sahel Predictive Analytics Report, which seeks to identify hotspots of interconnected risks across the Sahel region, specifically in the areas of (1) climate change, (2) food security, (3) conflict and (4) migration and displacement. Our focus was specifically on generating insights related to the exacerbating effects of climate change on poor natural resource management of land and water resources, a lack of local governance and their projected effects on farmer-herder conflicts. Specific attention was also on how to improve resilience to climate change through investments in the blue and green economy sectors, which employ 60-80 per cent of people in the Sahel, for example, through nature-based solutions (NbS) such as agroforestry which show a large climate adaptation potential in the region.


Date - August 2022



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